How Robust the Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation Is Going to Be with Climate Change

Abstract

Irrespective of the fact that accurate simulation of South Asian monsoon rainfall still remains a challenge in climate models, it is evident that the adverse impacts of climate change in India would include extreme heatwaves, erratic monsoons, heavy rainfall and cloudbursts, floods, severe droughts, and stronger cyclones bringing miseries to the most populated region of the world. From the drizzle for a week about a decade ago at any location, now we see intense rains for a day and dry weather for rest of the week.
The observed warming has already given rise to heavy rainfall events and cloud bursts have tremendously increased over the years in the past two decades. Extreme rainfall events are projected to rise in intensity throughout the 21st century across the Indian sub-continent, particularly during the summer monsoon. Climate change induced extreme climate events will take a toll on human health,
security, livelihoods, and poverty levels, affecting different parts of India in various ways. The growing pace of urbanization will also have unequal effects on citizens and infrastructure. With the increase in extreme rainfall events and several artificial obstructions due to construction and debris dumping, the behavior of Himalayan rivers is becoming unpredictable. With the rapid melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, abrupt floods are becoming common, causing significant harm to life and property. These glacier retreats are also resulting in the creation of glacial lakes due to elevated temperatures, which pose potential dangers of floods and landslides to the downstream population. As floods and droughts become more frequent and intense, poverty will worsen in some areas, especially as it impacts crucial crops like rice, leading to increased food prices and a higher cost of living for vulnerable communities. Compounded by the pressure stemming from rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth in India, the consequences of these combined stresses will significantly impact the sustainable development prospects.