Analytical Analysis of the Egyptian Foreign Fish Trade
Keywords:Production, consumption, multi-equation models, economic
The research aims to study the interrelationship between fish production, consumption and imports through a three-stage standard model to show the most important factors affecting the quantity consumed, produced and imported of fish for the period (2000-2021). Although Egypt is surrounded by the Mediterranean and the Red Sea and has the Nile River and lakes, the quantity produced is about
1217 thousand tons, while the amount consumed is about 1532 thousand tons, and the Egyptian fish gap is estimated at 215 thousand tons, and the amount of fish exports is 42.7 thousand tons compared to imports of 250.3 thousand tons and knead for the average period (2000-2021).and by using the simultaneous three-stage equations, it is shown that the most important factors affecting the quantity consumed are the quantity produced, the average real per capita income, and the direct relationship. Imports by increasing the quantity consumed and the population, we will increase the amount of lowpriced fish imports that are in line with the income level of Egyptians .As for the fish gap in Egypt, it may reach about 527.8 thousand tons in 2025, and it will increase until it reaches about 601.4 thousand tons in 2030, which will be covered by low-value fish imports, as fish imports in 2025 will reach about 554.6 thousand tons, and the increase will continue. In the imported quantity, it will reach about 668 thousand tons in 2030. On the other hand, Egypt exports fish of high value and high quality. The quantity in 2025 is estimated at about 47.3 thousand tons. The exported quantity of Egyptian fish of high value and quality increases, reaching in 2030 to about 57 thousand tons, the study recommends increasing Egyptian fish production by making optimal use of the vast water bodies of the seas, lakes and rivers, then paying attention to increasing fish farming of high-value fish and in the same demand in foreign markets, in addition to trying to bridge the gap by decreasing the quantity imported with increasing the amount of fish exports so that the fish trade balance can be in Egypt's interest.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.